Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 9:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Fresno State
Closing spread
GASO -1.5
✓ FRES W
Total
51.5
▲ Over · 56 pts
Model before kickoff
GASO 26–26 FRES
✗ GASO (50%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenFRES -1.5
CloseGASO -1.5
Total53.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFRES -1.5
3 → GASO
CloseGASO -1.5
3 pts toward Georgia Southern
Total
Open53.5
▼ 2
Close51.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FRES -1.5 · closed GASO -1.5 · moved 3 toward GASOmodel FRES -5.5
model FRES -5.5
Opened 53.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 2 downmodel 52.5
model 52.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (104 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (142 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenFRES -1.5
CloseGASO -1.5
Total53.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
GASO as a 1.5-point road favorite at FRES, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: FRES won 42–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 55%
Favorite covered
4 of 850%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 2.1; 52.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1 | 19–47 | L | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest |
-3.5 | 43–24 | W | O52 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-0.25 | 17–20 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest |
-1 | 24–10 | W | U50.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total |
-3 | 27–24 | P | U53 |
| Very close |  TOL @  SDSU2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-3 | 14–17 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1 | 31–30 | P | O55.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest |
-1.5 | 48–41 | W | O49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest |
-2 | 21–17 | W | U46.5 |
| Close |  KENT @  M-OH2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest |
-5 | 24–27 | L | U56.5 |
ODU
UVA
CCU
JXST
NMSU
LT
UTEP
WAKE
STAN
WMU
BUFFHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Georgia Southern ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Georgia Southern
3 pts (FRES -1.5 → GASO -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
53.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Georgia Southern have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 446 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
 FRES | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
FRES +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
99° · 7 mph
gusts 20 mph · at kickoff
Rest
GASO1st game
FRES7d
Even
Travel
GASO 2,166 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
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