Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Texas State
Closing spread
TXST -13.5
✓ TXST W
Total
56.5
▲ Over · 79 pts
Model before kickoff
EMU 22–36 TXST
✓ TXST (84%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTXST -13.5
CloseTXST -13.5
Total58.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTXST -13.5
no move
CloseTXST -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open58.5
▼ 2
Close56.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TXST -13.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -17
model TXST -17
Opened 58.5 · closed 56.5 · moved 2 downmodel 57.5
model 57.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 48% (92 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTXST -13.5
CloseTXST -13.5
Total58.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TXST as a 13.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: TXST won 52–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 79%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 13.7; 64 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-13 | 43–46 | L | O59 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total |
-13.5 | 7–10 | L | U58 |
| Very close |  WKU vs  RICE2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-13.5 | 45–10 | W | U61 |
| Very close |  APP vs  TROY2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-14 | 32–28 | L | O52 |
| Very close |  USA vs  LT2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-13 | 38–14 | W | U59 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-14 | 56–28 | W | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-13.5 | 38–10 | W | U58.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-15.5 | 38–28 | L | O55 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation |
-10.5 | 45–38 | L | O57.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings |
-16 | 48–38 | L | O55.5 |
COLO
STAN
WSU
LOU
BC
LIB
ODU
SC
JXST
UL
BUFF
USMHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
58.5 → 56.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Eastern Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 369 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 EMU | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| TXST | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TXST +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
91° · 3 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
EMU1st game
TXST1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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WMU @ 
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CLT
CMU @ 
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MSST @ 
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PUR
TOL @ 
UK