Miami (OH) @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Wisconsin

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

0-0 · Power #91

final

Final

Wisconsin

0-0 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -18.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 15–32 WIS

✓ WIS (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -17.5

CloseWIS -18.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -17.5

1 → WIS

CloseWIS -18.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -17.5 · closed WIS -18.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel WIS -12

model WIS -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 53% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -17.5

CloseWIS -18.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as an 18.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 17–0; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 23.3 against an average line of 17.9; 46.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs NU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings	-16.5	40–14	W	O38
Close	UTSA vs ECU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-17.5	41–27	L	O48
Close	MINN vs NEV 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	27–0	W	U44
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	WISC vs WSU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	CAL vs SDSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	31–10	W	U48.5
Close	UK vs OHIO 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-21.5	41–6	W	O42
Close	AFA vs COLO 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-17.5	41–10	W	O50
Close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-17	38–14	W	O48
Close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · close	-17	31–3	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found