Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
NEB -5.5
✓ CIN W
Total
50.5
▼ Under · 37 pts
Model before kickoff
NEB 27–22 CIN
✓ NEB (65%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNEB -6.5
CloseNEB -5.5
Total54.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEB -6.5
1 → CIN
CloseNEB -5.5
1 pt toward Cincinnati
Total
Open54.5
▼ 4
Close50.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEB -6.5 · closed NEB -5.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel NEB -5.5 matches the line
model NEB -5.5 = line ✓
Opened 54.5 · closed 50.5 · moved 4 downmodel 49
model 49
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Neutral-site favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 39% (49 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (148 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNEB -6.5
CloseNEB -5.5
Total54.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NEB as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: NEB won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 63%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 5.5; 54.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3 | 27–35 | L | O49 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 39–34 | L | O49.5 |
| Close |  WISC vs  OKST2022 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings |
-5 | 24–17 | W | U45 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-6.5 | 34–27 | W | O52 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 21–17 | L | U50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 34–14 | W | U55.5 |
| Close |  ND vs  BYU2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 28–20 | W | U51.5 |
| Close |  ORST vs  FLA2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings |
-7.5 | 30–3 | W | U51.75 |
| Close | ND vs  SC2022 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings |
-5 | 45–38 | W | O50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close |
-6.5 | 34–22 | W | O54 |
GT
VAN
LOU
MIZ
MEM
TA&M
ARK
TTU
CALHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 4
54.5 → 50.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Nebraska have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
 CIN | 4-6 40% | 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
78° · 3 mph
gusts 12 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NEB1st game
CIN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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