Jacksonville State @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Thu, Aug 28, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at UCF

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphgusts 15Wet0.2 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville State

0-0 · Power #101

final

Final

UCF

0-0 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -20.5

✓ JXST W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 21–41 UCF

✓ UCF (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -18.5

CloseUCF -20.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -18.5

2 → UCF

CloseUCF -20.5

2 pts toward UCF

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -18.5 · closed UCF -20.5 · moved 2 toward UCFmodel UCF -16

model UCF -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 47% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (126 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -18.5

CloseUCF -20.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 20.5-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 17–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.9 against an average line of 20; 55.1 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total	-21.75	35–13	W	U54.5
Very close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Very close	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Very close	TULN vs UAB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-22	35–23	L	U58.5
Very close	MIZ vs MTSU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-21	23–19	L	U47.5
Very close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	MSST vs MEM 2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	49–23	W	O58
Close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	CAL vs SDSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-18.5	31–10	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found