UNLV @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Fri, Aug 29, 2025, 9:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Sam Houston

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

1-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-1 · Power #135

final

Closing spread

UNLV -8.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 29–20 SHSU

✓ UNLV (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -10.5

CloseUNLV -8.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -10.5

2 → SHSU

CloseUNLV -8.5

2 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -10.5 · closed UNLV -8.5 · moved 2 toward SHSUmodel UNLV -11

model UNLV -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (106 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -10.5

CloseUNLV -8.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as an 8.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UNLV won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 8; 53.8 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ SDSU 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–0	W	U54
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	HOU @ RICE 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	41–43	L	O51
Close	TXST @ ODU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	14–24	L	U60
Close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Close	UNLV @ SJSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–16	W	U59.5
Close	UNC @ GAST 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	35–28	P	U64.25
Close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	TCU @ STAN 2024 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	34–27	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
SHSU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV O	1-0	100%	1-0
SHSU O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SHSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 42 FBS teams

UNLV

Longer bar = better

SHSU

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#28

#31

Defense

Even

#31

+3.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

+1.0 #13

68 plays #25

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

61 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #8	41.0 #41	UNLV
Yards / play	7.82 #4	5.88 #31	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.27 #9	+0.10 #24	UNLV
Success rate	50% #9	41% #28	UNLV

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #21	31.0 #36	SHSU
Yards / play	6.26 #13	7.21 #41	SHSU
PPA / play	−0.16 #38	−0.05 #13	UNLV
Success rate	29% #39	48% #34	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.