Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Penn State
Closing spread
PSU -43.5
✓ NEV W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 57 pts
Model before kickoff
NEV 5–48 PSU
✓ PSU (100%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPSU -43.5
ClosePSU -43.5
Total56.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPSU -43.5
no move
ClosePSU -43.5
No change since the open
Total
Open56.5
▼ 2
Close54.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PSU -43.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -37.5
model PSU -37.5
Opened 56.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 2 downmodel 53
model 53
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPSU -43.5
ClosePSU -43.5
Total56.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PSU as a 43.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: PSU won 46–11; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 58%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 38%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 42.6 against an average line of 40.9; 56.8 points a game (usually 57.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-43 | 51–3 | W | U57.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-39.5 | 56–7 | W | O51.75 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-42.5 | 52–3 | W | U61.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-42 | 45–3 | P | U52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-41 | 49–21 | L | O56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-40.75 | 31–6 | L | U53.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread |
-42 | 63–0 | W | O55 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-38 | 35–7 | L | U57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total |
-42.5 | 59–21 | L | O55.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-37.5 | 56–0 | W | O54.5 |
OU
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ALA
MTSU
MISS
UGA
BALL
UAB
MICH
BGSU
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UNLV
OSU
WMUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
56.5 → 54.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Nevada have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 384 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NEV | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| PSU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
PSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
70° · 5 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NEV1st game
PSU1st game
Even
Travel
NEV 2,196 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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M-OH @ 
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SHSU