Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Georgia
Closing spread
UGA -38.5
✓ MRSH W
Total
51.5
▲ Over · 52 pts
Model before kickoff
MRSH 8–45 UGA
✓ UGA (100%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUGA -39.5
CloseUGA -38.5
Total55.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUGA -39.5
1 → MRSH
CloseUGA -38.5
1 pt toward Marshall
Total
Open55.5
▼ 4
Close51.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UGA -39.5 · closed UGA -38.5 · moved 1 toward MRSHmodel UGA -27.5
model UGA -27.5
Opened 55.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 4 downmodel 53
model 53
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 36.5–40.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 60% (50 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (154 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUGA -39.5
CloseUGA -38.5
Total55.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UGA as a 38.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: UGA won 45–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
3 of 933%
Normal range · usually 60%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 33.8 against an average line of 36.3; 54.6 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-37 | 35–13 | L | U58.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total |
-39.5 | 56–7 | W | O51.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close |
-33.5 | 52–7 | W | O45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-35.5 | 30–3 | L | U52 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 7 · loose |
-34 | 41–31 | L | O53.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-36 | 73–0 | W | O58 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation |
-34.75 | 41–17 | L | O51.25 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-35.25 | 37–10 | L | U59 |
| Loose |  OSU vs  RUTG2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread |
-39 | 49–10 | P | O58 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-38.5 | 28–6 | L | U57.5 |
TEX
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MTSU
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IU
ECU
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ARK
KENTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 4
55.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Marshall have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 435 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MRSH | 9-1 90% | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% |
| UGA | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UGA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
84° · 6 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MRSH1st game
UGA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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