Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Florida State
Closing spread
ALA -13.5
✓ FSU W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
ALA 31–16 FSU
✗ ALA (85%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenALA -13.5
CloseALA -13.5
Total50.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -13.5
no move
CloseALA -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open50.5
▼ 4
Close46.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -13.5 · unchangedmodel ALA -20
model ALA -20
Opened 50.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 4 downmodel 47
model 47
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 47% (55 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenALA -13.5
CloseALA -13.5
Total50.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ALA as a 13.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: FSU won 31–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 79%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.6 against an average line of 14.3; 49.4 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread |
-14.5 | 40–17 | W | O46.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation |
-14 | 30–13 | W | U47.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close |
-17 | 27–24 | L | P51 |
| Close |  PSU @  IU2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total |
-13.5 | 45–14 | W | O50 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total |
-13.5 | 16–13 | L | U49.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread |
-12.5 | 19–24 | L | U45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings |
-17 | 45–7 | W | O39.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close |
-9.5 | 36–23 | W | O47 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close |
-16.5 | 40–10 | W | U52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread |
-14.5 | 27–24 | L | O48 |
MSST
ILL
TEX
VAN
ORE
WIS
KSU
HOU
MICH
NEB
TENN
SMU
STAN
AUBHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 4
50.5 → 46.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Alabama have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 328 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
 FSU | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
The series
ALA 4–2 FSU (1 tied)
ALA leads · 7 games since 1965 · ALA has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
FSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
87° · 4 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ALA1st game
FSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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