Auburn @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Fri, Aug 29, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Baylor

Weather at kickoff90°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

0-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

0-0 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

BAY -1.5

✓ AUB W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 28–29 BAY

✗ BAY (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -2.5

CloseBAY -1.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -2.5

4 → BAY

CloseBAY -1.5

4 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -2.5 · closed BAY -1.5 · moved 4 toward BAYmodel AUB -2

model AUB -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (139 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 40% (89 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -2.5

CloseBAY -1.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 1.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 38–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 2.5; 59.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs BYU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–37	L	O53.5
Very close	TXST vs ASU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	28–31	L	O58.5
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	SYR vs PUR 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	32–29	W	O59.5
Very close	UNC vs ND 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	32–45	L	O55.5
Very close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	WASH vs MSU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	39–28	W	O56.5
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Close	APP vs UNC 2022 · Week 1 · close · similar total & situation	-3	61–63	L	O56.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found