Baylor @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at SMU

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baylor

0-1 · Power #50

▲ winner

Final

SMU

1-0 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

SMU -2.5

✓ BAY W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 93 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 28–32 SMU

✗ SMU (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -3.5

CloseSMU -2.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -3.5

1 → BAY

CloseSMU -2.5

1 pt toward Baylor

Total

Open65.5

no move

Close65.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -3.5 · closed SMU -2.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel SMU -7.5

model SMU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (219 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -3.5

CloseSMU -2.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 2.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 48–45 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 93 points went over 65.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 4.2; 51.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Loose	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Loose	FAU vs OHIO 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	10–17	L	U61.5
Loose	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	41–19	W	U65
Loose	UCF vs LOU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	14–20	L	U62.5
Loose	ARIZ vs TTU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-6	22–28	L	U63.5
Loose	KU vs ILL 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–23	W	U57.5
Loose	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Loose	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-5	35–34	L	O66
Loose	OKST vs WVU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–38	L	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY L	0-1	0%	—	—
SMU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY O	1-0	100%	0-1
SMU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 72 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
SMU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+6.9 →+6.7▼ 0.2#39

SMU+12.5 →+11.3▼ 1.2#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BAY

Longer bar = better

SMU

#67

Offense

Even

#58

#118

Defense

SMU better ▶

#44

0.0 #89

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

0.0 #74

72 plays #38

Pace

◀ BAY faster

63 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	BAY off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #78	13.0 #54	SMU
Yards / play	6.71 #38	4.50 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #55	−0.37 #10	SMU
Success rate	38% #98	35% #54	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #32	38.0 #121	SMU
Yards / play	6.35 #44	6.01 #108	SMU
PPA / play	+0.06 #92	+0.29 #116	SMU
Success rate	44% #63	56% #126	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.