Illinois @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Duke

Weather at kickoff86°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

1-0 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Duke

1-0 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

ILL -2.5

✓ ILL W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 27–25 DUKE

✓ ILL (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -3.5

CloseILL -2.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -3.5

1 → DUKE

CloseILL -2.5

1 pt toward Duke

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -3.5 · closed ILL -2.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (159 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -3.5

CloseILL -2.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 2.5-point road favorite at DUKE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 45–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 4.2; 53.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Loose	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	IU @ UCLA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	42–13	W	O46.5
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Loose	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-6	14–21	L	U50
Loose	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	MIA @ FLA 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–17	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
DUKE –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: ILL away, as favorite; DUKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL U	0-1	0%	1-0
DUKE O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 405 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
DUKE	6-4 60%	6-2 75%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ILL 2–2 DUKE Series tied · 4 games since 1958 · DUKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+4.1 →+4.9▲ 0.8#47

DUKE+1.9 →+2.2▲ 0.3#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ILL

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#14

Offense

Even

#21

#15

Defense

◀ ILL better

#68

+1.0 #49

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

−1.0 #114

59 plays #109

Pace

Even

59 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #15	17.0 #78	ILL
Yards / play	7.46 #17	4.44 #55	ILL
PPA / play	+0.56 #8	+0.14 #96	ILL
Success rate	59% #17	33% #44	ILL

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #27	3.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	9.29 #3	2.96 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.49 #18	−0.32 #13	Even
Success rate	53% #36	26% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.