Oklahoma State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Oregon

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

1-0 · Power #111

final

Final

Oregon

1-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -28.5

✓ ORE W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 16–45 ORE

✓ ORE (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -27.5

CloseORE -28.5

Total58.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -27.5

1 → ORE

CloseORE -28.5

1 pt toward Oregon

Total

Open58.5

▼ 3

Close55.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -27.5 · closed ORE -28.5 · moved 1 toward OREmodel ORE -29.5

model ORE -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 62% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (139 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -27.5

CloseORE -28.5

Total58.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like ORE as a 28.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORE won 69–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 6 similar games. 72 points went over 55.5, as in 1 of 6.

Favorite won

6 of 6100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

1 of 617%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.8 against an average line of 26.2; 46.2 points a game (usually 56). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs SC 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-26.5	24–14	L	U54
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Loose	USC vs STAN 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28.5	56–10	W	U70
Loose	WASH vs EMU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-25	30–9	L	U48.5
Loose	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Loose	UCF vs SHSU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-21.5	45–14	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST –	0-0	—	—	—
ORE W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST U	0-1	0%	1-0
ORE O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 391 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	1-9 10%	1-8 11%	5-5 50%
ORE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

OKST 1–2 ORE ORE leads · 3 games since 2008 · OKST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−2.7 →−2.7–#77

ORE+21.3 →+20.6▼ 0.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

OKST

Longer bar = better

ORE

#78

Offense

ORE better ▶

#10

#50

Defense

Even

#47

+1.0 #45

Turnovers

◀ OKST better

0.0 #76

72 plays #39

Pace

◀ OKST faster

64 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	OKST off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #70	13.0 #56	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #88	4.21 #46	ORE
PPA / play	+0.19 #61	−0.09 #46	Even
Success rate	39% #93	32% #40	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #9	7.0 #32	ORE
Yards / play	7.91 #13	4.09 #44	ORE
PPA / play	+0.56 #9	+0.04 #76	ORE
Success rate	63% #10	34% #49	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.