Florida International @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Penn State

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida International

1-0 · Power #109

final

Final

Penn State

1-0 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -41.5

✓ FIU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 4–46 PSU

✓ PSU (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -41.5

ClosePSU -41.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -41.5

no move

ClosePSU -41.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -41.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -40

model PSU -40

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -41.5

ClosePSU -41.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like PSU as a 41.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 34–0; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 5 similar games. 34 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 57%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 37.6 against an average line of 39.2; 46.8 points a game (usually 56). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs UNLV 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-38	35–7	L	U57.5
Loose	MIZ vs BUFF 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-34.5	38–0	W	U52
Loose	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5
Loose	ALA vs MTSU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-39.5	56–7	W	O51.75
Loose	OU vs TEM 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-43	51–3	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU W	1-0	100%	—	—
PSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU U	0-1	0%	1-0
PSU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
PSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−11.2▲ 0.2#112

PSU+20.4 →+22.2▲ 1.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

FIU

Longer bar = better

PSU

#34

Offense

Even

#24

#43

Defense

Even

#43

0.0 #62

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+3.0 #8

73 plays #32

Pace

Even

71 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #30	11.0 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #46	3.90 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #36	−0.54 #3	PSU
Success rate	56% #22	41% #87	FIU

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #21	9.0 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.17 #48	5.01 #83	PSU
PPA / play	+0.46 #20	−0.15 #36	Even
Success rate	64% #6	26% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.