Northern Illinois @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Fri, Sep 5, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Maryland

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-0 · Power #124

final

Final

Maryland

1-0 · Power #72

▲ winner

Closing spread

MD -16.5

✓ NIU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 15–31 MD

✓ MD (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -16.5

CloseMD -16.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMD -16.5

no move

CloseMD -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MD -16.5 · unchangedmodel MD -14

model MD -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 46% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMD -16.5

CloseMD -16.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like MD as a 16.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 20–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 7 similar games. 29 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 7.

Favorite won

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 14.9; 46.3 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	CIN vs M-OH 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-14.25	24–31	L	O44.25
Loose	MIA vs M-OH 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-16.5	38–3	W	U45.25
Loose	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Loose	UK vs SC 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-9.5	6–31	L	U41.5
Loose	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Loose	MSU vs CMU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-14	31–7	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU L	0-1	0%	—	—
MD W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU U	0-1	0%	1-0
MD U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MD	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−5.3 →−6.3▼ 1.0#96

MD+2.1 →+3.7▲ 1.6#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

NIU

Longer bar = better

#104

Offense

MD better ▶

#63

#40

Defense

MD better ▶

#21

0.0 #75

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+6.0 #1

72 plays #38

Pace

MD faster ▶

77 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	NIU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #91	7.0 #30	MD
Yards / play	3.99 #118	3.77 #29	MD
PPA / play	+0.04 #94	−0.50 #4	MD
Success rate	35% #114	24% #19	MD

When MD has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	MD off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #39	17.0 #76	MD
Yards / play	4.94 #92	3.95 #38	NIU
PPA / play	+0.30 #47	−0.29 #17	NIU
Success rate	42% #72	30% #30	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.