North Texas @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Western Michigan

Weather at kickoff62°F13 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

North Texas

1-0 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Western Michigan

0-1 · Power #80

final

Closing spread

UNT -12.5

✓ WMU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 35–23 WMU

✓ UNT (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -10.5

CloseUNT -12.5

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -10.5

2 → UNT

CloseUNT -12.5

2 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open60.5

▼ 4

Close56.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -10.5 · closed UNT -12.5 · moved 2 toward UNTmodel UNT -7.5

model UNT -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 41% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -10.5

CloseUNT -12.5

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like UNT as a 12.5-point road favorite at WMU, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 33–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 63 points went over 56.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 16.5; 31 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AFA @ WYO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-16.5	14–17	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
WMU W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; WMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT U	0-1	0%	1-0
WMU U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in OT. Of 377 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WMU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →−2.2▲ 4.0#75

WMU−10.1 →−11.9▼ 1.8#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UNT

Longer bar = better

WMU

#33

Offense

◀ UNT better

#132

#16

Defense

◀ UNT better

#86

+1.0 #43

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #31

75 plays #25

Pace

◀ UNT faster

57 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #16	23.0 #90	UNT
Yards / play	6.16 #49	4.94 #81	UNT
PPA / play	+0.42 #26	−0.01 #59	UNT
Success rate	50% #41	49% #113	UNT

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	WMU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	6.0 #133	0.0 #6	UNT
Yards / play	3.81 #128	2.20 #5	UNT
PPA / play	−0.44 #134	−0.44 #6	UNT
Success rate	23% #134	33% #47	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.