Texas State @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UTSA

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Texas State

1-0 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

UTSA

0-1 · Power #65

final

Closing spread

UTSA -4.5

✓ TXST W

Total

64.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 31–34 UTSA

✗ UTSA (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -4.5

CloseUTSA -4.5

Total66.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -4.5

no move

CloseUTSA -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open66.5

▼ 2

Close64.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -4.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -2.5

model TXST -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (145 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -4.5

CloseUTSA -4.5

Total66.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 4.5-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 43–36 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 64.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 3.2; 64.4 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-4	42–21	W	U65
Close	WAKE vs UL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-3	38–41	L	O59.5
Close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Loose	NIU vs VAN 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–38	L	O58.5
Loose	CMU vs USA 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-6	24–38	L	O57.5
Loose	UTSA vs WKU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	31–28	L	U72.5
Loose	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Loose	UL vs TXST 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-1	34–30	W	U67.5
Loose	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Loose	WVU vs KU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	32–28	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST W	1-0	100%	—	—
UTSA W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: TXST away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST O	1-0	100%	1-0
UTSA O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 100 earlier overs in games with totals 60.5–68.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UTSA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TXST 1–1 UTSA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	UTSA 10 @ Texas State 49	TXST -2.5	TXST W
Sep 9 2023	Texas State 13 @ UTSA 20	UTSA -14	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+1.6 →+2.5▲ 0.9#59

UTSA−2.5 →−1.9▲ 0.6#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TXST

Longer bar = better

UTSA

Offense

◀ TXST better

#79

#105

Defense

◀ TXST better

#119

0.0 #90

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #91

66 plays #76

Pace

Even

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #14	42.0 #127	TXST
Yards / play	9.18 #4	6.76 #121	TXST
PPA / play	+0.62 #4	+0.39 #124	TXST
Success rate	59% #14	45% #104	TXST

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #79	27.0 #104	UTSA
Yards / play	5.57 #74	5.84 #104	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.25 #54	+0.37 #123	UTSA
Success rate	36% #108	41% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.