South Florida @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Florida

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Florida

1-0 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Florida

1-0 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

FLA -18.5

✓ USF W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 17–36 FLA

✗ FLA (91%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -16.5

CloseFLA -18.5

Total54.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -16.5

2 → FLA

CloseFLA -18.5

2 pts toward Florida

Total

Open54.5

▲ 4

Close58.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -16.5 · closed FLA -18.5 · moved 2 toward FLAmodel FLA -18

model FLA -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 50% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (146 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -16.5

CloseFLA -18.5

Total54.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like FLA as an 18.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 18–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 34 points stayed under 58.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 17; 66.5 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MICH vs MD 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	34–27	L	U66
Loose	MSST vs MEM 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-17	49–23	W	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
FLA W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; FLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF U	0-1	0%	1-0
FLA U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
FLA	7-3 70%	9-1 90%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USF 1–3 FLA FLA leads · 4 games since 2010 · USF has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.9 →+0.3▲ 4.2#67

FLA+13.1 →+14.3▲ 1.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USF

Longer bar = better

FLA

#63

Offense

FLA better ▶

#29

#50

Defense

FLA better ▶

+3.0 #7

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #13

53 plays #127

Pace

FLA faster ▶

74 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	USF off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #50	0.0 #3	FLA
Yards / play	7.02 #31	2.00 #3	FLA
PPA / play	+0.25 #53	−0.77 #1	FLA
Success rate	33% #118	13% #2	FLA

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #10	7.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.09 #54	4.40 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.50 #17	−0.19 #26	Even
Success rate	53% #35	42% #93	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.