Ole Miss @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

1-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

1-0 · Power #52

final

Closing spread

MISS -7.5

✓ UK W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 30–21 UK

✓ MISS (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -9.5

CloseMISS -7.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -9.5

2 → UK

CloseMISS -7.5

2 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -9.5 · closed MISS -7.5 · moved 2 toward UKmodel MISS -16.5

model MISS -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -9.5

CloseMISS -7.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 7.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 30–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.5 against an average line of 9.6; 60.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-10	39–38	L	O54
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & spread	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-10	27–3	W	U53
Loose	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Loose	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Loose	IU @ MSU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	47–10	W	O53.5
Loose	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Loose	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & total	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Loose	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-8	63–31	W	O54
Loose	TENN @ ARK 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-14	14–19	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
UK L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS O	1-0	100%	1-0
UK U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 459 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MISS 0–1 UK UK leads · 1 game since 2023 · UK has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Kentucky 20 @ Ole Miss 17	MISS -15.5	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+19.8 →+22.1▲ 2.3#5

UK+5.2 →+4.0▼ 1.2#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MISS

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ MISS better

#81

#34

Defense

◀ MISS better

#54

−1.0 #106

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #105

81 plays #8

Pace

◀ MISS faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	63.0 #5	16.0 #69	MISS
Yards / play	8.58 #8	4.77 #71	MISS
PPA / play	+0.40 #28	−0.11 #43	Even
Success rate	64% #7	31% #32	MISS

When UK has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	UK off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #77	7.0 #28	MISS
Yards / play	4.62 #104	4.33 #50	MISS
PPA / play	+0.06 #91	−0.07 #48	MISS
Success rate	48% #50	22% #10	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.