Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Virginia Tech

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Vanderbilt

1-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

0-1 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

VT -2.5

✓ VAN W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 23–26 VT

✗ VT (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -1.5

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -1.5

1 → VT

CloseVT -2.5

1 pt toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -1.5 · closed VT -2.5 · moved 1 toward VTmodel VT -6.5

model VT -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (223 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (147 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -1.5

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like VT as a 2.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 44–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 64 points went over 46.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 5.6; 35.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	FSU vs MEM 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7	12–20	L	U54.5
Loose	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Loose	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN W	1-0	100%	—	—
VT L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN U	0-1	0%	1-0
VT U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 350 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
VT	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 1–0 VT VAN leads · 1 game since 2023 · VAN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2024	Virginia Tech 27 @ Vanderbilt 34	VT -13.5	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+3.1 →+4.4▲ 1.3#48

VT+6.8 →+6.5▼ 0.3#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

VAN

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

◀ VAN better

#109

#12

Defense

◀ VAN better

#90

+2.0 #12

Turnovers

◀ VAN better

−2.0 #123

59 plays #105

Pace

VT faster ▶

72 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #22	24.0 #99	VAN
Yards / play	8.15 #10	5.86 #106	VAN
PPA / play	+0.62 #5	+0.16 #99	VAN
Success rate	67% #3	36% #57	VAN

When VT has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	VT off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	11.0 #118	3.0 #12	VAN
Yards / play	4.67 #102	2.93 #10	VAN
PPA / play	−0.06 #111	−0.21 #23	VAN
Success rate	36% #106	12% #1	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.