Vanderbilt @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 3 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

2-0 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

SC -2.5

✓ VAN W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 25–28 SC

✗ SC (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -5.5

CloseSC -2.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -5.5

3 → VAN

CloseSC -2.5

3 pts toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -5.5 · closed SC -2.5 · moved 3 toward VANmodel SC -6.5

model SC -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (231 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (69 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -5.5

CloseSC -2.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 2.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 31–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 4; 50.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs UCLA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–7	W	U51
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	RUTG vs WASH 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	21–18	W	U45
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	OSU vs PSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-4	20–12	W	U46.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Loose	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Loose	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–31	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
SC WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN UO	1-1	50%	2-0
SC UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
SC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

VAN 0–2 SC SC leads · 2 games since 2023 · SC has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	South Carolina 28 @ Vanderbilt 7	SC -5.5	SC W
Nov 11 2023	Vanderbilt 6 @ South Carolina 47	SC -13.5	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+3.1 →+8.1▲ 5.0#33

SC+13.9 →+11.3▼ 2.6#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

VAN

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ VAN better

#82

#40

Defense

Even

#32

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

SC better ▶

+1.5 #23

58 plays #126

Pace

Even

56 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	44.5 #22	10.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	8.37 #6	4.52 #52	VAN
PPA / play	+0.65 #3	−0.12 #18	Even
Success rate	65% #2	34% #32	VAN

When SC has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	SC off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #59	11.5 #31	VAN
Yards / play	5.19 #94	3.61 #11	VAN
PPA / play	+0.19 #57	+0.05 #72	Even
Success rate	36% #117	35% #45	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 99 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	10.0	15.5	25.5
SC allowed	2.5	3.0	5.5	0.0	5.0	5.0

SC scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	3.5	10.0	13.5	10.5	7.0	17.5
VAN allowed	5.0	5.0	10.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.