Texas A&M @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

2-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Notre Dame

0-1 · Power #3

final

Closing spread

ND -7.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 21–28 ND

✗ ND (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -9.5

CloseND -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -9.5

2 → TA&M

CloseND -7.5

2 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -9.5 · closed ND -7.5 · moved 2 toward TA&Mmodel ND -9.5

model ND -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (133 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (131 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -9.5

CloseND -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 7.5-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 10, covered 10, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 41–40 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 7.5; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	UGA vs TENN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	31–17	W	O47
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Loose	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-7	31–16	W	U52
Loose	LSU vs OU 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total	-6	37–17	W	O48
Loose	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · loose	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Loose	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Loose	USC vs NEB 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–20	W	U50.5
Loose	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · loose	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Loose	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LL	0-2	0%	—	—
ND L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OO	2-0	100%	2-0
ND O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q2. Of 426 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	8-2 80%
ND	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 0–1 ND ND leads · 1 game since 2023 · ND has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2024	Notre Dame 23 @ Texas A&M 13	TA&M -2.5	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+14.3 →+14.6▲ 0.3#14

ND+21.6 →+20.1▼ 1.5#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TA&M

Longer bar = better

#35

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#88

#64

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#102

0.0 #80

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−2.0 #128

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

58 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #28	27.0 #100	TA&M
Yards / play	6.91 #30	4.99 #74	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.25 #47	+0.15 #105	TA&M
Success rate	50% #36	50% #127	TA&M

When ND has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	ND off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #90	23.0 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #89	4.68 #59	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.09 #90	TA&M
Success rate	45% #59	32% #24	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.