Florida @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff91°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Florida

1-1 · Power #37

final

Final

LSU

2-0 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -5.5

✓ LSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 23–28 LSU

✓ LSU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -8.5

CloseLSU -5.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -8.5

3 → FLA

CloseLSU -5.5

3 pts toward Florida

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -8.5 · closed LSU -5.5 · moved 3 toward FLAmodel LSU -4.5

model LSU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 58% (125 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 63% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -8.5

CloseLSU -5.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 5.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 47.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 5.9; 54.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	UGA vs TENN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	31–17	W	O47
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WL	1-1	50%	—	—
LSU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UU	0-2	0%	1-1
LSU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
LSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FLA 34–35 LSU (3 tied) LSU leads · 72 games since 1937 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	LSU 16 @ Florida 27	LSU -2.5	FLA W
Nov 11 2023	Florida 35 @ LSU 52	LSU -16.5	LSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+13.1 →+13.3▲ 0.2#16

LSU+15.7 →+14.8▼ 0.9#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FLA

Longer bar = better

LSU

#57

Offense

◀ FLA better

#102

#28

Defense

Even

#24

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

◀ FLA better

−1.0 #117

70 plays #43

Pace

LSU faster ▶

73 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	FLA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #47	8.5 #18	LSU
Yards / play	5.80 #77	3.74 #14	LSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #50	−0.08 #31	Even
Success rate	46% #54	33% #31	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	LSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #109	9.0 #19	FLA
Yards / play	4.97 #104	4.42 #47	FLA
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	−0.10 #25	FLA
Success rate	41% #91	32% #21	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 88 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	8.5	15.0	23.5	5.0	7.0	12.0
LSU allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

LSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.5	3.0	6.5	7.0	6.5	13.5
FLA allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	4.5	1.5	6.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.