Florida @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Miami

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Florida

1-2 · Power #37

final

Final

Miami

3-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -8.5

✓ MIA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 23–31 MIA

✓ MIA (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -9.5

CloseMIA -8.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -9.5

1 → FLA

CloseMIA -8.5

1 pt toward Florida

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -9.5 · closed MIA -8.5 · moved 1 toward FLAmodel MIA -8

model MIA -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 50% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (193 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -9.5

CloseMIA -8.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as an 8.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 26–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 8.6; 54.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Very close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Very close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	MD vs MSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
MIA WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
MIA OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
MIA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 0–1 MIA MIA leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2024	Miami 41 @ Florida 17	MIA -2.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+13.1 →+12.5▼ 0.6#23

MIA+18.0 →+17.7▼ 0.3#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FLA

Longer bar = better

MIA

#79

Offense

MIA better ▶

#21

#33

Defense

Even

#33

−1.0 #112

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+1.3 #21

72 plays #29

Pace

◀ FLA faster

67 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	FLA off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #80	13.0 #28	MIA
Yards / play	5.45 #88	4.73 #48	MIA
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	−0.06 #25	MIA
Success rate	45% #56	35% #30	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #26	12.7 #26	Even
Yards / play	7.22 #21	4.96 #57	MIA
PPA / play	+0.35 #22	−0.05 #30	Even
Success rate	56% #14	32% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	6.7 #73	12.3 #28	19.0 #40	3.3 #107	4.7 #99	8.0 #114
MIA allowed	1.0 #12	4.3 #33	5.3 #17	0.0 #1	7.7 #86	7.7 #31

MIA scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	9.3 #25	14.0 #20	23.3 #20	7.0 #57	10.0 #29	17.0 #37
FLA allowed	0.0 #1	6.3 #61	6.3 #27	5.3 #77	1.0 #5	6.3 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.