Syracuse @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

2-1 · Power #92

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

1-2 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

CLEM -17.5

✓ SYR W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 20–36 CLEM

✗ CLEM (89%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -16.5

CloseCLEM -17.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -16.5

1 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -17.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -16.5 · closed CLEM -17.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -14

model CLEM -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (100 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (163 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -16.5

CloseCLEM -17.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 17.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 34–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 16.3; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Close	ND vs STAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	14–16	L	U53.5
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-14	43–37	L	O56
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	41–3	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LLW	1-2	33%	—	0-1
CLEM LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
CLEM UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 444 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
CLEM	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SYR 0–1 CLEM CLEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Clemson 31 @ Syracuse 14	CLEM -7	CLEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+5.9 →+2.2▼ 3.7#63

CLEM+15.2 →+12.7▼ 2.5#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SYR

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#48

Offense

◀ SYR better

#100

#106

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#63

−0.7 #107

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

0.0 #84

79 plays #11

Pace

◀ SYR faster

58 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #33	19.0 #57	SYR
Yards / play	6.13 #56	5.00 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #63	+0.01 #57	Even
Success rate	49% #38	41% #76	SYR

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #112	29.7 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #85	5.76 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.18 #106	Even
Success rate	42% #85	45% #111	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.7 #75	14.7 #18	19.3 #41	4.3 #85	13.7 #4	18.0 #28
CLEM allowed	3.3 #46	7.3 #69	10.7 #59	2.3 #20	6.0 #67	8.3 #43

CLEM scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	1.0 #112	5.7 #90	6.7 #108	8.0 #38	4.7 #85	12.7 #67
SYR allowed	6.7 #85	9.3 #91	16.0 #89	8.0 #99	5.7 #56	13.7 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.