Bowling Green @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisville

Weather at kickoff81°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

2-1 · Power #120

final

Final

Louisville

2-0 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -25.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 14–38 LOU

✓ LOU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -27.5

CloseLOU -25.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -27.5

2 → BGSU

CloseLOU -25.5

2 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -27.5 · closed LOU -25.5 · moved 2 toward BGSUmodel LOU -19

model LOU -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 46% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (138 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -27.5

CloseLOU -25.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 25.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 40–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.9 against an average line of 23.9; 55.3 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Close	AFA vs NEV 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-24	48–20	W	O47
Close	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5
Close	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Loose	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Loose	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Loose	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5
Loose	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · loose	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0
LOU LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
LOU OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 476 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
LOU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−4.2 →−6.4▼ 2.2#87

LOU+11.2 →+8.5▼ 2.7#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BGSU

Longer bar = better

LOU

#105

Offense

LOU better ▶

#55

#61

Defense

LOU better ▶

#17

+1.7 #13

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−1.0 #115

67 plays #65

Pace

◀ BGSU faster

60 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	BGSU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #95	15.5 #37	LOU
Yards / play	4.71 #121	3.15 #2	LOU
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	−0.17 #11	LOU
Success rate	39% #105	32% #16	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #34	18.0 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #32	5.47 #88	LOU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.01 #56	Even
Success rate	42% #79	37% #49	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.3 #94	6.7 #79	10.0 #90	5.3 #70	7.7 #51	13.0 #64
LOU allowed	3.5	3.5	7.0	3.5	5.0	8.5

LOU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	10.5	13.0	23.5	7.5	8.5	16.0
BGSU allowed	2.3 #28	4.7 #35	7.0 #29	8.0 #99	3.0 #28	11.0 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.