Bowling Green @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

2-2 · Power #120

final

Final

Ohio

2-2 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -7.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 21–29 OHIO

✓ OHIO (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -10.5

CloseOHIO -7.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -10.5

3 → BGSU

CloseOHIO -7.5

3 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -10.5 · closed OHIO -7.5 · moved 3 toward BGSUmodel OHIO -8.5

model OHIO -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (141 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -10.5

CloseOHIO -7.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 7.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OHIO won 35–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 6.6; 48.7 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	9–13	L	U46
Very close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Very close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75
Very close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	MEM vs RICE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	27–20	P	U50.5
Very close	UL vs TROY 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	51–30	W	O51.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	3-0
OHIO WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
OHIO OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 474 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
OHIO	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BGSU 0–1 OHIO OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Ohio 38 @ Bowling Green 7	OHIO -13	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−4.2 →−7.5▼ 3.3#92

OHIO−3.2 →−1.8▲ 1.4#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BGSU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#110

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#75

#80

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#114

+1.0 #22

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

0.0 #63

63 plays #112

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #105	29.0 #106	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #115	7.09 #131	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #109	+0.20 #112	Even
Success rate	38% #111	44% #106	Even

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #81	23.5 #74	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #53	5.89 #99	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.09 #77	Even
Success rate	41% #89	41% #68	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.3 #116	5.0 #112	8.3 #121	4.0 #109	9.3 #40	13.3 #75
OHIO allowed	7.8 #110	10.3 #117	18.0 #116	3.3 #36	7.8 #91	11.0 #67

OHIO scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	3.3 #116	13.8 #24	17.0 #63	6.8 #64	3.5 #120	10.3 #103
BGSU allowed	3.5 #55	7.0 #70	10.5 #56	8.3 #123	4.8 #55	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.