UConn @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Buffalo

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

UConn

2-2 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

2-2 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

CONN -2.5

✓ CONN W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 28–25 BUFF

✓ CONN (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -2.5

CloseCONN -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -2.5

no move

CloseCONN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -2.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -2.5 matches the line

model CONN -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (180 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -2.5

CloseCONN -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 2.5-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 20–17; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.1; 46 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ SHSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	18–20	L	U47.5
Very close	LIB @ BGSU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	13–23	L	U51.5
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	FRES @ HAW 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–21	L	U47.5
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	37–42	L	O47
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
BUFF WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
BUFF UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
BUFF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 1–0 BUFF CONN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CONN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Buffalo 3 @ UConn 47	CONN -5.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.2 →−5.2▼ 1.0#81

BUFF−9.8 →−9.9▼ 0.1#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CONN

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#33

Offense

◀ CONN better

#94

#104

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#58

+0.8 #29

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

0.0 #72

72 plays #26

Pace

◀ CONN faster

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #34	19.5 #47	Even
Yards / play	6.89 #24	4.64 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #20	+0.11 #85	CONN
Success rate	45% #54	40% #61	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #86	27.3 #96	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #102	5.71 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.19 #111	BUFF
Success rate	38% #115	46% #114	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	8.5 #40	12.3 #29	20.8 #30	6.8 #63	9.5 #29	16.3 #44
BUFF allowed	1.8 #17	4.3 #23	6.0 #20	2.5 #27	11.0 #127	13.5 #102

BUFF scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	6.0 #80	5.0 #114	11.0 #107	10.5 #10	4.3 #109	14.8 #57
CONN allowed	5.3 #83	7.5 #78	12.8 #79	3.3 #35	8.0 #100	11.3 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.