Florida International @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff78°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

2-2 · Power #109

final

Final

UConn

3-2 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -6.5

✓ CONN W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 23–30 CONN

✓ CONN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -7.5

CloseCONN -6.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -7.5

1 → FIU

CloseCONN -6.5

1 pt toward Florida International

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -7.5 · closed CONN -6.5 · moved 1 toward FIUmodel CONN -9.5

model CONN -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (183 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -7.5

CloseCONN -6.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 6.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 51–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 6.5; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-10	25–9	W	U53
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	CCU vs ODU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-4	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Close	USA vs ULM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	46–17	W	O45
Close	GASO vs TROY 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	20–28	L	U53.5
Close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0
CONN WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2
CONN OUOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 534 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FIU 1–0 CONN FIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Florida International 24 @ UConn 17	CONN -7	FIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−12.2▼ 0.8#116

CONN−4.2 →−5.9▼ 1.7#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

FIU

Longer bar = better

CONN

#94

Offense

CONN better ▶

#41

#71

Defense

◀ FIU better

#90

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

+0.6 #37

70 plays #37

Pace

Even

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #91	25.2 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #94	5.50 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.15 #94	Even
Success rate	42% #88	45% #110	FIU

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #49	27.3 #97	CONN
Yards / play	6.56 #34	5.66 #87	CONN
PPA / play	+0.30 #23	+0.04 #56	CONN
Success rate	45% #57	39% #42	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.3 #90	7.8 #91	13.0 #94	7.8 #44	3.3 #125	11.0 #92
CONN allowed	4.2 #59	7.4 #78	11.6 #63	3.2 #30	7.8 #102	11.0 #61

CONN scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	6.8 #60	11.2 #36	18.0 #44	7.4 #51	8.2 #48	15.6 #44
FIU allowed	5.0 #77	10.3 #116	15.3 #100	4.3 #58	7.8 #99	12.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.