Syracuse @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

3-2 · Power #92

final

Final

SMU

2-2 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -17.5

✓ SYR W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 22–38 SMU

✓ SMU (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -16.5

CloseSMU -17.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -16.5

1 → SMU

CloseSMU -17.5

1 pt toward SMU

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -16.5 · closed SMU -17.5 · moved 1 toward SMUmodel SMU -10.5

model SMU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (107 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -16.5

CloseSMU -17.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 17.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 31–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 16.1; 58.5 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-17.5	21–34	L	O53.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-14	43–37	L	O56
Close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Close	ISU vs TTU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	22–23	L	U55.5
Close	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	38–28	L	O54
Close	BOIS vs APP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	47–14	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-2
SMU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUOOU	3-2	60%	3-2
SMU UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
SMU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+5.9 →−0.2▼ 6.1#71

SMU+12.5 →+6.4▼ 6.1#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SYR

Longer bar = better

SMU

#68

Offense

SMU better ▶

#50

#114

Defense

SMU better ▶

#76

−0.6 #111

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

+0.3 #55

76 plays #10

Pace

◀ SYR faster

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #64	26.5 #90	SYR
Yards / play	5.82 #73	5.72 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.02 #45	SMU
Success rate	44% #62	41% #75	Even

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #46	29.6 #112	SMU
Yards / play	6.40 #41	6.17 #115	SMU
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.18 #103	SMU
Success rate	45% #58	48% #125	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	5.4 #86	11.6 #32	17.0 #55	4.6 #99	8.2 #48	12.8 #77
SMU allowed	4.3 #61	7.8 #89	12.0 #71	2.5 #25	9.5 #119	12.0 #78

SMU scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.8 #64	10.5 #43	17.3 #50	5.3 #86	10.5 #18	15.8 #43
SYR allowed	7.4 #107	9.8 #110	17.2 #114	6.2 #95	6.2 #68	12.4 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.