Miami @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F11 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Miami

4-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

3-1 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ MIA W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 28–25 FSU

✓ MIA (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -6.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -6.5

4 → FSU

CloseMIA -2.5

4 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -6.5 · closed MIA -2.5 · moved 4 toward FSUmodel MIA -4.5

model MIA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (187 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -6.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 28–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 5; 54.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA @ TENN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	44–41	L	O50.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	OSU @ ND 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3	17–14	P	U55.5
Close	ORST @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-3	24–27	L	U57.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Loose	OSU @ WASH 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9.5	24–6	W	U52.5
Loose	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total	-7	31–14	W	U53
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-1.5	30–27	W	O47.5
Loose	TENN @ MSST 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	41–34	L	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLWW	3-1	75%	—	2-1
FSU WWWL	3-1	75%	3-0	1-0

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOU	2-2	50%	4-0
FSU OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIA 1–1 FSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Florida State 14 @ Miami 36	MIA -21.5	MIA W
Nov 11 2023	Miami 20 @ Florida State 27	FSU -14.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+19.8▲ 1.8#8

FSU0.0 →+13.3▲ 13.3#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MIA

Longer bar = better

FSU

#28

Offense

FSU better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ MIA better

#40

+0.8 #31

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

0.0 #78

70 plays #38

Pace

FSU faster ▶

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #32	19.0 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #37	4.55 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #28	0.00 #34	Even
Success rate	53% #13	40% #58	MIA

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	53.0 #1	11.5 #9	Even
Yards / play	8.19 #2	4.27 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #5	−0.12 #11	Even
Success rate	52% #16	33% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	8.8 #30	12.0 #30	20.8 #26	5.3 #88	10.8 #14	16.0 #37
FSU allowed	5.3 #78	3.5 #15	8.8 #35	2.5 #24	5.0 #45	7.5 #22

FSU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	15.8 #3	17.3 #1	33.0 #1	12.3 #3	7.0 #64	19.3 #17
MIA allowed	0.8 #6	3.3 #13	4.0 #6	1.8 #10	5.8 #60	7.5 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.