Virginia @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

4-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

4-0 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

LOU -6.5

✓ UVA W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 27–34 LOU

✗ LOU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -6.5

CloseLOU -6.5

Total62.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -6.5

no move

CloseLOU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

▼ 1

Close61.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -6.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -6.5 matches the line

model LOU -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (183 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -6.5

CloseLOU -6.5

Total62.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 6.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 5.7; 53 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	34–17	W	U63
Very close	BOIS vs UNLV 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4	21–7	W	U57.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	BOIS vs WSU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	45–24	W	O66
Very close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Very close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	KU vs CIN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	34–37	L	O56
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WLWWW	4-1	80%	0-1	1-1
LOU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-1
LOU OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 47% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
LOU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UVA 6–8 LOU LOU leads · 14 games since 1988 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Louisville 24 @ Virginia 20	LOU -7.5	UVA W
Nov 9 2023	Virginia 24 @ Louisville 31	LOU -20.5	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−1.6 →+7.2▲ 8.8#39

LOU+11.2 →+10.7▼ 0.5#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UVA

Longer bar = better

LOU

#16

Offense

◀ UVA better

#52

#78

Defense

LOU better ▶

#20

+0.4 #47

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.8 #32

80 plays #3

Pace

◀ UVA faster

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	45.6 #8	18.8 #37	UVA
Yards / play	6.76 #28	4.55 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #7	−0.23 #4	Even
Success rate	52% #19	34% #14	Even

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #25	23.2 #69	LOU
Yards / play	6.13 #53	5.61 #84	LOU
PPA / play	+0.16 #63	+0.15 #93	LOU
Success rate	44% #66	41% #66	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	12.6 #6	16.0 #6	28.6 #4	9.6 #17	5.2 #98	14.8 #54
LOU allowed	6.8 #102	4.3 #20	11.0 #59	1.8 #12	6.0 #65	7.8 #25

LOU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.0 #55	14.3 #17	21.3 #25	6.8 #58	10.3 #21	17.0 #32
UVA allowed	2.8 #33	8.4 #95	11.2 #61	9.6 #130	1.8 #3	11.4 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.