Clemson @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

1-3 · Power #34

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

2-2 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

CLEM -15.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 31–17 UNC

✓ CLEM (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -13.5

CloseCLEM -15.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -13.5

2 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -15.5

2 pts toward Clemson

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -13.5 · closed CLEM -15.5 · moved 2 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -11.5

model CLEM -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–17.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 53% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (176 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -13.5

CloseCLEM -15.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 15.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 14.5; 50.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	VT @ ODU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	37–17	W	O47.5
Close	FLA @ FSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-17	31–11	W	U46
Close	BOIS @ AFA 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-11	49–37	W	O51.5
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Close	UTSA @ TEM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-14	49–34	W	O56
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	31–14	W	U52.5
Close	BGSU @ CMU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	23–13	L	U48.5
Loose	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & spread	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Loose	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Loose	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & spread	-17	13–10	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-4
UNC LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
UNC OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 437 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLEM 1–0 UNC CLEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	North Carolina 20 @ Clemson 31	CLEM -7.5	CLEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+15.2 →+8.6▼ 6.6#32

UNC+2.3 →−4.0▼ 6.3#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CLEM

Longer bar = better

UNC

#97

Offense

◀ CLEM better

#116

#59

Defense

Even

#67

−0.5 #109

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

0.0 #76

64 plays #98

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

54 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	CLEM off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #118	22.8 #61	UNC
Yards / play	5.68 #79	5.07 #51	UNC
PPA / play	0.00 #124	+0.12 #84	UNC
Success rate	44% #68	41% #73	Even

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: CLEM defense

	UNC off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #108	22.8 #62	CLEM
Yards / play	4.90 #123	5.17 #58	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.05 #60	CLEM
Success rate	38% #121	39% #54	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	2.5 #124	6.0 #104	8.5 #123	6.0 #70	5.3 #97	11.3 #90
UNC allowed	4.3 #62	7.3 #78	11.5 #63	7.0 #105	4.3 #31	11.3 #68

UNC scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.8 #67	5.0 #119	11.8 #105	5.0 #90	4.3 #110	9.3 #114
CLEM allowed	5.0 #78	9.0 #101	14.0 #93	4.3 #56	4.5 #36	8.8 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.