Sam Houston @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Thu, Oct 2, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-4 · Power #135

final

Final

New Mexico State

2-2 · Power #129

▲ winner

Closing spread

SHSU -1.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 26–25 NMSU

✗ SHSU (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -1.5

CloseSHSU -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -1.5

no move

CloseSHSU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel SHSU -0.5

model SHSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (124 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -1.5

CloseSHSU -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 37–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 3.6; 60.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Close	HAW @ UNM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	21–42	L	O60
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	41–30	W	O48
Close	ARST @ KENN 2025 · Week 4 · close	-4.5	21–28	L	U58
Close	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-3	45–21	W	O49.5
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Loose	ARST @ USM 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & total	-7	44–28	W	O56.5
Loose	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-6	41–34	W	O52
Loose	UTSA @ RICE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–29	L	O51
Loose	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	—
NMSU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: SHSU away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OUOO	3-1	75%	0-4
NMSU UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
NMSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SHSU 1–3 NMSU NMSU leads · 4 games since 2023 · NMSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	New Mexico State 11 @ Sam Houston 31	SHSU -14.5	SHSU W
Oct 11 2023	Sam Houston 13 @ New Mexico State 27	NMSU -3.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−8.0 →−15.5▼ 7.5#127

NMSU−21.1 →−20.6▲ 0.5#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SHSU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#133

Offense

Even

#125

#126

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#69

+0.3 #60

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #54

61 plays #123

Pace

Even

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	SHSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #130	26.0 #83	NMSU
Yards / play	4.40 #134	5.62 #84	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	+0.07 #70	NMSU
Success rate	36% #131	38% #39	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #120	42.8 #135	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #127	6.72 #128	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #120	+0.22 #117	Even
Success rate	33% #134	47% #122	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	3.3 #118	2.5 #134	5.8 #127	5.3 #82	5.3 #96	10.5 #100
NMSU allowed	5.0 #76	6.0 #49	11.0 #58	4.3 #56	10.8 #132	15.0 #116

NMSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.0 #108	6.8 #97	10.8 #108	1.8 #128	6.0 #83	7.8 #122
SHSU allowed	10.5 #126	12.5 #127	23.0 #133	10.3 #132	9.5 #118	19.8 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.