Wisconsin @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

2-2 · Power #63

final

Final

Michigan

3-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -17.5

✓ WIS W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 13–30 MICH

✓ MICH (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -16.5

CloseMICH -17.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -16.5

1 → MICH

CloseMICH -17.5

1 pt toward Michigan

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -16.5 · closed MICH -17.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -15.5

model MICH -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (184 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -16.5

CloseMICH -17.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 17.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 24–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 25.2 against an average line of 16.8; 51 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	ORE vs WASH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	49–21	W	O50.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	NCST vs VT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.25	22–21	L	O39
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	IOWA vs NU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	40–14	W	O38
Close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-17	31–3	W	U41
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	38–21	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LWLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
MICH LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2
MICH OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
MICH	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.3 →+4.2▼ 1.1#53

MICH+12.2 →+15.6▲ 3.4#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WIS

Longer bar = better

MICH

#102

Offense

MICH better ▶

#52

#67

Defense

MICH better ▶

#38

−0.8 #119

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.3 #8

65 plays #88

Pace

◀ WIS faster

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	WIS off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #110	17.8 #33	MICH
Yards / play	4.96 #119	4.24 #18	MICH
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.01 #39	MICH
Success rate	42% #83	40% #61	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #43	18.8 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.85 #23	5.44 #73	MICH
PPA / play	+0.24 #36	+0.13 #88	MICH
Success rate	40% #106	41% #70	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	0.8 #132	3.5 #130	4.3 #135	7.8 #44	8.8 #43	16.5 #36
MICH allowed	1.8 #15	9.3 #104	11.0 #59	3.5 #41	3.3 #19	6.8 #16

MICH scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	9.5 #24	9.5 #58	19.0 #37	10.0 #11	6.0 #87	16.0 #41
WIS allowed	4.3 #62	8.5 #94	12.8 #82	3.5 #41	2.5 #8	6.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.