Iowa @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

3-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

2-3 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

IOWA -4.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 22–18 WIS

✓ IOWA (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -3.5

CloseIOWA -4.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -3.5

1 → IOWA

CloseIOWA -4.5

1 pt toward Iowa

Total

Open37.5

no move

Close37.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -3.5 · closed IOWA -4.5 · moved 1 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -2.5

model IOWA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (195 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -3.5

CloseIOWA -4.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 4.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 37–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 37.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 5.4; 45.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Very close	UTAH @ HOU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	14–17	L	U36
Close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5
Close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U45
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.25	42–16	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-1
WIS LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2
WIS UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 65% of games with totals 33.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WIS	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IOWA 48–49 WIS (2 tied) WIS leads · 99 games since 1894 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Wisconsin 10 @ Iowa 42	IOWA -2.5	IOWA W
Oct 14 2023	Iowa 15 @ Wisconsin 6	WIS -8.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+7.8 →+8.3▲ 0.5#34

WIS+5.3 →+3.6▼ 1.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

IOWA

Longer bar = better

WIS

#80

Offense

◀ IOWA better

#109

#28

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#86

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

−0.8 #120

66 plays #82

Pace

◀ IOWA faster

64 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #65	19.8 #40	WIS
Yards / play	4.99 #119	5.84 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	+0.16 #98	Even
Success rate	45% #49	44% #104	IOWA

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	WIS off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #121	15.6 #18	IOWA
Yards / play	4.86 #123	4.46 #20	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.03 #41	IOWA
Success rate	42% #89	39% #34	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.0 #34	9.6 #57	17.6 #47	4.0 #106	7.8 #56	11.8 #83
WIS allowed	4.8 #69	7.4 #81	12.2 #73	4.2 #51	3.4 #18	7.6 #19

WIS scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	2.0 #131	2.8 #134	4.8 #135	6.2 #64	7.6 #59	13.8 #59
IOWA allowed	5.4 #81	6.2 #52	11.6 #65	0.0 #1	4.0 #26	4.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.