Purdue @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

2-3 · Power #79

final

Final

Minnesota

3-2 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -7.5

✓ PUR W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 19–27 MINN

✓ MINN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -9.5

CloseMINN -7.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -9.5

2 → PUR

CloseMINN -7.5

2 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -9.5 · closed MINN -7.5 · moved 2 toward PURmodel MINN -8.5

model MINN -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (158 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (162 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -9.5

CloseMINN -7.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 7.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MINN won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 6.6; 56.2 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5
Very close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Very close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Very close	VT vs UVA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	37–17	W	O44.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	38–17	W	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	1-2
MINN L–LLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UUUOO	2-3	40%	2-3
MINN UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MINN	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 36–42 MINN (3 tied) MINN leads · 81 games since 1894 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Minnesota 30 @ Purdue 49	MINN -2	PUR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−8.2 →−2.2▲ 6.0#75

MINN+8.6 →+2.6▼ 6.0#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PUR

Longer bar = better

MINN

#54

Offense

◀ PUR better

#71

#124

Defense

MINN better ▶

#69

−1.4 #132

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.4 #49

69 plays #39

Pace

◀ PUR faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #74	21.4 #58	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #70	5.01 #41	MINN
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.14 #93	PUR
Success rate	49% #27	43% #82	PUR

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #79	29.8 #111	MINN
Yards / play	5.55 #81	6.50 #127	MINN
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.30 #133	MINN
Success rate	46% #48	47% #125	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	8.4 #29	8.6 #74	17.0 #52	4.8 #93	6.0 #87	10.8 #97
MINN allowed	4.2 #55	6.8 #62	11.0 #58	4.2 #53	6.2 #67	10.4 #52

MINN scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	7.6 #42	11.0 #34	18.6 #34	5.4 #84	3.4 #122	8.8 #118
PUR allowed	6.2 #92	12.4 #132	18.6 #126	9.4 #127	1.8 #2	11.2 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.