Illinois @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

4-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

2-2 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

ILL -7.5

✓ ILL W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 30–23 PUR

✓ ILL (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -7.5

CloseILL -7.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -7.5

no move

CloseILL -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -7.5 · unchangedmodel ILL -9

model ILL -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (114 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -7.5

CloseILL -7.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 7.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 43–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 7.5; 55.2 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ WAKE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	46–36	W	O55
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	MIZ @ MSST 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	39–20	W	O57.5
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Very close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	20–10	W	U51
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	APP @ ODU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	21–28	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-0
PUR WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: ILL away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UOUOO	3-2	60%	4-1
PUR UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 456 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
PUR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ILL 47–48 PUR (6 tied) PUR leads · 101 games since 1892 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Purdue 49 @ Illinois 50	ILL -21.5	PUR W
Sep 30 2023	Illinois 19 @ Purdue 44	Pick’em	PUR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+4.1 →+8.1▲ 4.0#36

PUR−8.2 →−2.9▲ 5.3#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ILL

Longer bar = better

PUR

#38

Offense

◀ ILL better

#61

#98

Defense

◀ ILL better

#114

+1.0 #22

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

−1.3 #130

60 plays #125

Pace

PUR faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #40	26.5 #89	ILL
Yards / play	6.23 #47	6.09 #111	ILL
PPA / play	+0.26 #30	+0.30 #128	ILL
Success rate	48% #34	49% #129	ILL

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PUR offense

	PUR off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #78	23.4 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.75 #77	5.77 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #57	+0.19 #105	PUR
Success rate	48% #33	46% #119	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	7.6 #48	8.2 #82	15.8 #63	9.0 #28	11.0 #14	20.0 #11
PUR allowed	7.8 #112	8.8 #96	16.5 #107	8.5 #126	1.5 #1	10.0 #48

PUR scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	8.8 #31	9.0 #66	17.8 #48	4.3 #102	6.0 #87	10.3 #105
ILL allowed	4.8 #72	6.8 #67	11.6 #64	5.4 #76	6.4 #72	11.8 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.