Michigan State @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F17 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

3-1 · Power #67

final

Final

Nebraska

3-1 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -12.5

✓ MSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 16–30 NEB

✓ NEB (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -10.5

CloseNEB -12.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -10.5

2 → NEB

CloseNEB -12.5

2 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open53.5

▼ 4

Close49.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -10.5 · closed NEB -12.5 · moved 2 toward NEBmodel NEB -16.5

model NEB -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 53% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (180 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -10.5

CloseNEB -12.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 12.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 38–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 12.6; 56.5 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Close	ISU vs TTU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-13.5	22–23	L	U55.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	24–34	L	O54.5
Close	UCF vs UNC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-7	34–9	W	U46.5
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14	43–37	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LLLW	1-3	25%	1-0	1-0
NEB LWWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
NEB UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 495 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	8-2 80%
NEB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSU 1–0 NEB MSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · MSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Nebraska 17 @ Michigan State 20	NEB -3	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.3 →+0.5▲ 0.2#68

NEB+8.3 →+12.8▲ 4.5#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MSU

Longer bar = better

NEB

#61

Offense

NEB better ▶

#21

#111

Defense

NEB better ▶

#32

0.0 #72

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+1.0 #18

62 plays #117

Pace

NEB faster ▶

73 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #48	13.5 #16	NEB
Yards / play	6.01 #61	4.47 #22	NEB
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.02 #44	NEB
Success rate	44% #64	39% #45	Even

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #12	28.8 #106	NEB
Yards / play	6.85 #24	6.05 #109	NEB
PPA / play	+0.24 #35	+0.20 #113	NEB
Success rate	53% #11	46% #116	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	7.0 #53	8.5 #78	15.5 #64	10.0 #13	5.0 #99	15.0 #49
NEB allowed	3.3 #38	1.8 #5	5.0 #9	6.0 #90	2.5 #8	8.5 #37

NEB scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	6.5 #65	18.8 #1	25.3 #9	8.8 #34	9.5 #28	18.3 #20
MSU allowed	3.3 #38	10.5 #117	13.8 #89	4.3 #56	7.5 #94	11.8 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.