North Carolina @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UCF

Weather at kickoff88°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

2-1 · Power #89

final

Final

UCF

2-0 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -7.5

✓ UCF W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 19–28 UCF

✓ UCF (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -6.5

CloseUCF -7.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -6.5

1 → UCF

CloseUCF -7.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open50.5

▼ 5

Close45.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -6.5 · closed UCF -7.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel UCF -12

model UCF -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (135 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -6.5

CloseUCF -7.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 7.5-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 34–9; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 8.1; 55 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	56–7	W	O48
Close	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Close	UK vs SC 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	6–31	L	U41.5
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Loose	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-6	24–31	L	O44
Loose	ARK vs BYU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-8.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Loose	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-10	42–40	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	0-1
UCF LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
UCF UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
UCF	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+2.3 →−1.9▼ 4.2#76

UCF+6.8 →+6.6▼ 0.2#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNC

Longer bar = better

UCF

#97

Offense

UCF better ▶

#42

#57

Defense

UCF better ▶

#20

+0.7 #46

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+1.5 #16

52 plays #135

Pace

UCF faster ▶

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	UNC off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #88	8.5 #9	UCF
Yards / play	5.33 #99	3.98 #18	UCF
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	−0.11 #17	UCF
Success rate	38% #110	36% #37	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	42.5 #23	19.0 #56	UCF
Yards / play	7.79 #10	4.91 #55	UCF
PPA / play	+0.26 #41	+0.01 #58	Even
Success rate	41% #92	38% #59	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	9.0 #35	5.7 #95	14.7 #69	4.7 #83	5.7 #74	10.3 #85
UCF allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	7.0	8.5

UCF scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	14.0	6.0	20.0	8.5	14.0	22.5
UNC allowed	2.3 #28	6.3 #56	8.7 #41	7.0 #92	3.3 #30	10.3 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.