West Virginia @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

2-1 · Power #77

final

Final

Kansas

2-1 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -13.5

✓ KU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 21–34 KU

✓ KU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -12.5

CloseKU -13.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -12.5

1 → KU

CloseKU -13.5

1 pt toward Kansas

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -12.5 · closed KU -13.5 · moved 1 toward KUmodel KU -11

model KU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 49% (97 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (169 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -12.5

CloseKU -13.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 13.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 41–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 11.9; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-11	21–6	W	U52
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-0
KU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
KU UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WVU 1–0 KU WVU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WVU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Kansas 28 @ West Virginia 32	WVU -1.5	WVU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+0.8 →+1.3▲ 0.5#66

KU+6.8 →+8.3▲ 1.5#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WVU

Longer bar = better

#84

Offense

KU better ▶

#28

#25

Defense

◀ WVU better

#66

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

KU better ▶

+0.3 #58

74 plays #20

Pace

◀ WVU faster

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #74	18.7 #52	KU
Yards / play	5.90 #70	4.97 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.14 #96	Even
Success rate	42% #87	38% #57	KU

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #48	14.7 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.85 #29	4.29 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #20	−0.11 #16	Even
Success rate	54% #16	32% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	4.7 #87	3.3 #121	8.0 #113	8.0 #41	10.3 #23	18.3 #30
KU allowed	4.3 #63	7.3 #73	11.7 #64	2.3 #24	4.7 #47	7.0 #27

KU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	16.3 #3	8.3 #74	24.7 #16	6.7 #66	4.7 #94	11.3 #84
WVU allowed	1.0 #12	6.7 #61	7.7 #36	3.7 #50	3.3 #28	7.0 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.