Utah @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F3 mphgusts 10Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Utah

3-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

West Virginia

2-2 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

UTAH -12.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 31–19 WVU

✓ UTAH (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -9.5

CloseUTAH -12.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -9.5

3 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -12.5

3 pts toward Utah

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -9.5 · closed UTAH -12.5 · moved 3 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -8.5

model UTAH -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 39% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (172 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -9.5

CloseUTAH -12.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 12.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 48–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 12.3; 45.3 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	24–20	L	U52
Close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	SMU @ UVA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	33–7	W	U54.5
Close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	USA @ UL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	20–17	L	U47.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	3-1
WVU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1
WVU UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 387 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+4.1 →+10.4▲ 6.3#29

WVU+0.8 →−0.9▼ 1.7#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UTAH

Longer bar = better

WVU

#43

Offense

◀ UTAH better

#101

#27

Defense

Even

#38

+0.5 #44

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−0.8 #119

77 plays #11

Pace

Even

74 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #39	21.3 #60	UTAH
Yards / play	5.89 #68	4.65 #38	WVU
PPA / play	+0.23 #48	−0.02 #29	Even
Success rate	53% #15	35% #25	Even

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	WVU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #93	14.8 #25	UTAH
Yards / play	5.55 #88	4.88 #47	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.03 #117	−0.08 #18	UTAH
Success rate	39% #107	33% #16	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	7.5 #58	8.5 #76	16.0 #69	10.5 #10	10.3 #24	20.8 #11
WVU allowed	2.5 #34	8.3 #90	10.8 #54	6.3 #98	4.3 #34	10.5 #57

WVU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	3.5 #109	3.3 #130	6.8 #126	6.0 #72	9.5 #29	15.5 #49
UTAH allowed	2.5 #34	3.3 #14	5.8 #16	0.8 #5	8.3 #106	9.0 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.