Arizona State @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 10:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F11 mphgusts 39Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona State

4-1 · Power #41

final

Final

Utah

4-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -8.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 20–28 UTAH

✓ UTAH (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -4.5

CloseUTAH -8.5

Total48.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -4.5

4 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -8.5

4 pts toward Utah

Total

Open48.5

▼ 6

Close42.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -4.5 · closed UTAH -8.5 · moved 4 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -7

model UTAH -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (130 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -4.5

CloseUTAH -8.5

Total48.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as an 8.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 8.8; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WASH vs UTAH 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form	-9.5	35–28	L	O49
Loose	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	56–7	W	O48
Loose	NEB vs MSU 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-12.5	38–27	L	O48.5
Loose	MIA vs FLA 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & season form	-8.5	26–7	W	U51.5
Loose	UCF vs UNC 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-7	34–9	W	U46.5
Loose	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Loose	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & season form	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5
Loose	COLO vs UTAH 2024 · Week 12 · loose	-13.5	49–24	W	O43.5
Loose	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Loose	MSST vs ARK 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.5	40–17	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-0
UTAH WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	4-1

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
UTAH OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Went over in Q3. Of 235 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
UTAH	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ASU 23–13 UTAH ASU leads · 36 games since 1961 · UTAH has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2024	Utah 19 @ Arizona State 27	UTAH -5.5	ASU W
Nov 4 2023	Arizona State 3 @ Utah 55	UTAH -10	UTAH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+11.1 →+11.2▲ 0.1#27

UTAH+4.1 →+13.2▲ 9.1#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ASU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#64

Offense

UTAH better ▶

#26

#50

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#18

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

+0.2 #55

73 plays #17

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

77 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	ASU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #66	14.6 #12	UTAH
Yards / play	5.81 #66	5.04 #40	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	−0.09 #10	UTAH
Success rate	43% #70	33% #9	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #17	21.2 #52	UTAH
Yards / play	6.09 #49	4.83 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #28	+0.04 #40	Even
Success rate	52% #11	42% #75	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	4.0 #110	8.8 #72	12.8 #92	8.2 #34	8.2 #47	16.4 #31
UTAH allowed	2.0 #12	2.6 #6	4.6 #5	2.0 #12	8.0 #100	10.0 #45

UTAH scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	8.8 #26	9.6 #56	18.4 #37	10.4 #6	10.2 #19	20.6 #7
ASU allowed	4.6 #63	6.0 #46	10.6 #51	4.0 #47	6.6 #79	10.6 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.