Texas Tech @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F1 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

6-0 · Power #5

final

Final

Arizona State

4-2 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -8.5

✓ ASU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 32–23 ASU

✗ TTU (73%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -10.5

CloseTTU -8.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -10.5

2 → ASU

CloseTTU -8.5

2 pts toward Arizona State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 3

Close52.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -10.5 · closed TTU -8.5 · moved 2 toward ASUmodel TTU -8

model TTU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 54% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (171 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -10.5

CloseTTU -8.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as an 8.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ASU won 26–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 7.2; 60.1 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IU @ MSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	47–10	W	O53.5
Close	BYU @ COLO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Close	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	39–38	L	O54
Close	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-10	27–3	W	U53
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Close	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	4-0
ASU LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OUUUO	3-3	50%	6-0
ASU UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	7-3 70%
ASU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TTU 4–3 ASU TTU leads · 7 games since 1999 · TTU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Arizona State 22 @ Texas Tech 30	TTU -4.5	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+5.6 →+19.6▲ 14.0#8

ASU+11.1 →+8.7▼ 2.4#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TTU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#10

Offense

◀ TTU better

#78

Defense

◀ TTU better

#72

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #21

75 plays #7

Pace

Even

74 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	47.5 #2	24.7 #72	TTU
Yards / play	7.41 #7	5.21 #49	TTU
PPA / play	+0.35 #8	+0.10 #72	TTU
Success rate	49% #23	43% #96	TTU

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	ASU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #85	12.2 #7	TTU
Yards / play	5.41 #92	3.98 #4	TTU
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	−0.30 #1	TTU
Success rate	43% #79	30% #3	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	16.3 #2	13.5 #8	29.8 #1	6.8 #56	10.8 #11	17.7 #21
ASU allowed	5.0 #66	7.3 #74	12.3 #70	5.7 #79	6.7 #72	12.3 #84

ASU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	3.8 #114	7.3 #90	11.2 #106	8.0 #33	6.8 #70	14.8 #46
TTU allowed	0.5 #3	4.7 #19	5.2 #5	0.0 #1	7.0 #83	7.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.