Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F16 mphgusts 23DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati

5-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

1-5 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

CIN -23.5

✓ CIN W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 38–15 OKST

✓ CIN (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -20.5

CloseCIN -23.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -20.5

3 → CIN

CloseCIN -23.5

3 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -20.5 · closed CIN -23.5 · moved 3 toward CINmodel CIN -21.5

model CIN -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (196 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -20.5

CloseCIN -23.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 23.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 49–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.9 against an average line of 23.4; 55.3 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	35–14	L	U54
Very close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-24	55–0	W	O53
Close	BAY @ OKST 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-21	45–27	L	O58.5
Close	UCLA @ COLO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-22	45–17	W	O57
Close	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-21	24–16	L	U55.5
Close	LOU @ STAN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-21	35–38	L	O57.5
Close	SMU @ MOST 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-28.5	28–10	L	U60.5
Close	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-22	17–13	L	U54
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-26	56–23	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN L–WWL	3-2	60%	1-0	1-2
OKST LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOOU	4-2	67%	5-1
OKST OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 428 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%
OKST	1-9 10%	1-8 11%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–1 OKST OKST leads · 1 game since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Cincinnati 13 @ Oklahoma State 45	OKST -7	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+3.5 →+6.6▲ 3.1#43

OKST−2.7 →−15.6▼ 12.9#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CIN

Longer bar = better

OKST

#12

Offense

◀ CIN better

#133

#71

Defense

◀ CIN better

#126

−0.2 #90

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

+0.2 #60

58 plays #136

Pace

OKST faster ▶

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #30	36.7 #132	CIN
Yards / play	7.82 #2	6.72 #133	CIN
PPA / play	+0.36 #6	+0.26 #130	CIN
Success rate	51% #10	45% #109	CIN

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	OKST off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #133	19.2 #29	CIN
Yards / play	4.56 #133	5.37 #59	CIN
PPA / play	−0.04 #129	+0.15 #99	CIN
Success rate	33% #135	44% #97	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	12.7 #3	12.0 #20	24.7 #5	5.7 #78	5.7 #89	11.3 #91
OKST allowed	11.3 #135	12.0 #131	23.3 #135	10.7 #131	2.7 #6	13.3 #95

OKST scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.7 #76	4.2 #127	9.8 #118	1.7 #134	5.0 #106	6.7 #134
CIN allowed	1.2 #5	6.7 #58	7.8 #16	4.7 #57	6.7 #69	11.3 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.