Baylor @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

2-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

1-2 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

BAY -21.5

✓ OKST W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 41–20 OKST

✓ BAY (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -20.5

CloseBAY -21.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -20.5

1 → BAY

CloseBAY -21.5

1 pt toward Baylor

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -20.5 · closed BAY -21.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel BAY -19

model BAY -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (174 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -20.5

CloseBAY -21.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 21.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 45–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 58.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.8 against an average line of 21.7; 58 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LOU @ STAN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-21	35–38	L	O57.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	UCF @ USF 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	46–39	L	O67.5
Close	ORE @ UCLA 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-23.5	34–13	L	U54
Close	FRES @ NEV 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-22.5	41–14	W	O54
Loose	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-22	17–13	L	U54
Loose	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	35–14	L	U54
Loose	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Loose	UCLA @ COLO 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & total	-22	45–17	W	O57
Loose	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24	55–0	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	0-3
OKST –LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BAY away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
OKST UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 349 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
OKST	1-9 10%	1-8 11%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 1–0 OKST BAY leads · 1 game since 2023 · BAY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Oklahoma State 28 @ Baylor 38	BAY -6.5	BAY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+6.9 →+8.9▲ 2.0#33

OKST−2.7 →−11.0▼ 8.3#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BAY

Longer bar = better

OKST

#60

Offense

◀ BAY better

#125

#94

Defense

◀ BAY better

#114

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

OKST better ▶

0.0 #80

79 plays #7

Pace

◀ BAY faster

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #49	31.7 #117	BAY
Yards / play	6.06 #56	6.53 #125	BAY
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	+0.26 #125	BAY
Success rate	45% #64	43% #89	BAY

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	OKST off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #135	29.3 #110	BAY
Yards / play	4.68 #128	5.38 #73	BAY
PPA / play	+0.04 #112	+0.13 #91	BAY
Success rate	37% #125	44% #100	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.0 #94	14.0 #23	19.0 #40	2.5 #124	10.5 #18	13.0 #74
OKST allowed	12.3 #132	9.0 #101	21.3 #130	10.3 #132	0.0 #1	10.3 #56

OKST scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.7 #87	2.0 #136	7.7 #123	1.0 #132	5.3 #94	6.3 #130
BAY allowed	6.8 #98	7.8 #82	14.5 #100	4.3 #55	8.8 #111	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.