Arizona @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

3-0 · Power #26

final

Final

Iowa State

4-0 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -4.5

✓ ISU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 22–27 ISU

✓ ISU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -7.5

CloseISU -4.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -7.5

3 → ARIZ

CloseISU -4.5

3 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -7.5 · closed ISU -4.5 · moved 3 toward ARIZmodel ISU -6

model ISU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (164 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -7.5

CloseISU -4.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 39–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 4.5; 49 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SC vs VAN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	7–31	L	U48.5
Close	UTAH vs UCLA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	14–7	W	U51
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	ND vs IU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-7	27–17	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWW	3-0	100%	—	1-0
ISU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
ISU UOUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 462 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ISU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARIZ 4–2 ISU (1 tied) ARIZ leads · 7 games since 1948 · ISU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#45

ISU+7.6 →+7.0▼ 0.6#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

ISU

#61

Offense

Even

#55

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#33

+2.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ ARIZ better

+0.5 #49

67 plays #62

Pace

◀ ARIZ faster

64 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	ARIZ off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #38	14.3 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.50 #39	4.87 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #45	−0.03 #27	Even
Success rate	37% #122	36% #35	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	ISU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #74	8.7 #7	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.96 #64	3.63 #4	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.29 #27	−0.24 #6	ARIZ
Success rate	45% #55	29% #6	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	12.7 #7	10.0 #52	22.7 #21	10.3 #10	4.0 #116	14.3 #63
ISU allowed	1.8 #15	6.8 #67	8.5 #36	1.5 #14	4.3 #34	5.8 #13

ISU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	9.0 #30	7.0 #96	16.0 #67	5.3 #81	8.5 #43	13.8 #66
ARIZ allowed	2.0 #24	1.0 #4	3.0 #6	4.7 #66	1.0 #2	5.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.