UCF @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-0 · Power #66

final

Final

Kansas State

1-3 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -5.5

✓ KSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 23–27 KSU

✓ KSU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -6.5

CloseKSU -5.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -6.5

1 → UCF

CloseKSU -5.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -6.5 · closed KSU -5.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel UCF -1.5

model UCF -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 58% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -6.5

CloseKSU -5.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 5.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 34–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 4.2; 46 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Close	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · close	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Close	NCSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	24–17	P	U46.5
Close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Close	NCSU vs UVA 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total	-2.75	35–31	W	O52.75
Loose	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Loose	IOWA vs ISU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	7–10	L	U39
Loose	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & spread	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LWW	2-1	67%	—	—
KSU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-4

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
KSU UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 455 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
KSU	4-6 40%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCF 0–1 KSU KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	UCF 31 @ Kansas State 44	KSU -6	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.8 →+8.0▲ 1.2#36

KSU+9.4 →+3.2▼ 6.2#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UCF

Longer bar = better

KSU

#36

Offense

◀ UCF better

#98

#17

Defense

◀ UCF better

#59

+1.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

0.0 #78

64 plays #98

Pace

◀ UCF faster

56 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #28	26.5 #89	UCF
Yards / play	7.02 #20	4.60 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #26	+0.10 #81	UCF
Success rate	44% #71	36% #32	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	KSU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #90	8.7 #6	UCF
Yards / play	5.70 #78	3.91 #12	UCF
PPA / play	+0.03 #116	−0.09 #16	UCF
Success rate	38% #109	36% #34	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	12.7 #12	7.3 #92	20.0 #36	8.0 #45	11.7 #12	19.7 #18
KSU allowed	5.3 #84	7.8 #82	13.0 #87	4.3 #57	9.3 #114	13.5 #100

KSU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	4.0 #102	6.0 #101	10.0 #109	9.0 #31	5.3 #95	14.3 #65
UCF allowed	0.0 #1	1.0 #5	1.0 #2	3.0 #35	4.7 #51	7.7 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.