Florida State @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Fri, Sep 26, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

3-0 · Power #23

final

Final

Virginia

3-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -6.5

✓ UVA W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 32–26 UVA

✗ FSU (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -7.5

CloseFSU -6.5

Total51.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -7.5

1 → UVA

CloseFSU -6.5

1 pt toward Virginia

Total

Open51.5

▲ 9

Close60.5

Up 9 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -7.5 · closed FSU -6.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel FSU -5

model FSU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (125 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -7.5

CloseFSU -6.5

Total51.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like FSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 46–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 84 points went over 60.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 3; 73 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	35–38	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WWW	3-0	100%	—	2-0
UVA WLWW	3-1	75%	3-0	0-1

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OOO	3-0	100%	3-0
UVA OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 235 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UVA	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU0.0 →+13.3▲ 13.3#20

UVA−1.6 →+6.4▲ 8.0#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

FSU

Longer bar = better

UVA

Offense

Even

#13

#17

Defense

◀ FSU better

#60

0.0 #83

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+0.5 #46

71 plays #29

Pace

UVA faster ▶

79 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	58.0 #1	19.5 #47	FSU
Yards / play	8.90 #2	5.36 #72	FSU
PPA / play	+0.57 #4	+0.15 #93	FSU
Success rate	54% #12	36% #28	Even

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	45.5 #11	10.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	7.17 #17	4.23 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.46 #6	−0.13 #11	Even
Success rate	52% #18	34% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	21.0 #1	16.0 #12	37.0 #1	14.0 #4	7.0 #66	21.0 #11
UVA allowed	3.5 #54	5.3 #41	8.8 #45	10.3 #130	0.5 #3	10.8 #65

UVA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	14.0 #5	16.5 #8	30.5 #4	10.3 #19	4.8 #106	15.0 #54
FSU allowed	4.7 #74	0.0 #1	4.7 #14	1.0 #10	4.3 #45	5.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.