Army @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Thu, Sep 25, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Army

1-2 · Power #83

final

Final

East Carolina

2-2 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -3.5

✓ ECU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 23–28 ECU

✓ ECU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -3.5

CloseECU -3.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -3.5

no move

CloseECU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -3.5 · unchangedmodel ECU -10

model ECU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (229 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -3.5

CloseECU -3.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 3.5-point home favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 28–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 3.6; 53.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	UNLV vs WYO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	34–14	W	U48.25
Very close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Very close	FIU vs DEL 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	16–38	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
ECU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: ARMY away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
ECU UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ECU	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARMY 1–0 ECU ARMY leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARMY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	East Carolina 28 @ Army 45	ARMY -18.5	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−9.7 →−6.1▲ 3.6#83

ECU−5.0 →+0.6▲ 5.6#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARMY

Longer bar = better

ECU

#92

Offense

ECU better ▶

#76

#101

Defense

ECU better ▶

#46

−1.3 #128

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

+1.3 #15

82 plays #2

Pace

Even

80 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	ARMY off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #76	15.3 #28	ECU
Yards / play	5.00 #118	4.77 #40	ECU
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	+0.08 #75	ECU
Success rate	43% #76	38% #41	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #66	32.0 #117	ECU
Yards / play	5.81 #69	5.53 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.15 #94	Even
Success rate	42% #83	44% #107	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	4.7 #98	8.0 #82	12.7 #93	7.0 #60	9.0 #42	16.0 #46
ECU allowed	1.5 #16	6.8 #64	8.3 #38	3.5 #46	3.5 #29	7.0 #26

ECU scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	6.8 #70	7.0 #96	13.8 #84	6.0 #72	11.3 #15	17.3 #34
ARMY allowed	9.0 #121	8.0 #88	17.0 #112	6.0 #85	4.7 #53	10.7 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.